CoreyPlover brought up a good point in the IRC support channel earlier today:
[04:41:51] <CoreyPlover> I've noticed several threads, with several users saying midnight to 3-4am speeds are horrid
[04:42:22] <CoreyPlover> I suspect it may be related to the extreme peaks noticed in the PeerApp results (http://steve.blogs.exetel.com.au/index. ... pdate.html
I've taken the following two graphs, one is the PeerApp bandwidth graph from the blog post Corey linked, the other is my latency/loss graph for the same period:
You can see by overlaying the two, that the periods I'm experiencing packet loss (where the line appears blue instead of green) coincide with the PeerApp bandwidth graphs exactly, even the traffic spikes at the end of the off peak period. (Just ignore the large spikes on my loss graph, they would have been caused by downloading on my side)
That would indicate that the Vic<>Exetel (or some other) pipe is unable to cope with the extra bandwidth the PeerApp cache is generating during these spikes straight after midnight, causing service degradation to the rest of the traffic over this link in the form of packet loss.
I would be interested to see what the Exetel network guys think of my theories